Why We Don’t Trust Data

The Agitator

Angie Moore, in Tuesday’s FS Online post Predicting Weather is not Like Predicting Donations , notes that a good many fundraisers deny themselves the benefits of predictive modeling simply because, just like the weather forecast, they don’t understand what’s behind it. database marketing direct marketing Don''t Miss these Posts fundraising marketing metrics premium

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Fundraising Atlas Does More Than Shrug

The Agitator

At the end of April I reported on a new forecasting service, The Atlas of Giving. In April actual overall fundraising returns were ahead by 11%, but the Atlas forecast that the summer and fall results would decline and the year would finish just 3.8% Today The Atlas of Giving released its monthly report of actual results through the end of September, their forecast through the end of 2011, and also their forecast for 2012. Their April forecast was +3.8%).

Fundraising GPS: Steering On The Past Or Future? Or Both?

The Agitator

Plus one sophisticated forecast for 2013. I regret to inform you that the 2013 forecast doesn’t seem all that rosy when compared to 2012. In the three years I’ve been tracking their forecasts they’ve been right on target: annually 97.5% For 2013 The Atlas giving forecast calls for only modest growth of 1.6%, one of the slowest growth rates in 50 years. Again, you can read the Atlas of Giving full report, including the 2013 forecast and the 2012 data, at no charge here.

GPS 70

Ghosts Of Fundraising Past And Future

The Agitator

That’s just one of the reasons I’m intrigued by The Philanthromax Atlas of Giving , a sophisticated FORECASTING service that alerts fundraisers to the good news – or bad news – of what lies ahead. Because the Atlas also forecasts that it’s downhill starting in June with 2011 expected to end at just a disappointing 3.8% Philanthromax ‘s forecasting model uses over 50 variables in its calculations and has been back-tested using 40 years of comprehensive giving data.

Fundraising’s Past Isn’t What It Used To Be

The Agitator

Months ago we alerted Agitator readers to the Atlas of Giving which not only reports on giving-to-date, but forecasts the likely fundraising outcomes in future quarters. in the first quarter of 2011, but forecast it would hit the skids beginning this month and end the year with only a 3.8% It’s time for our sector to start paying far more serious attention to understanding the present and forecasting the future, even while better measuring the past.

Fundraising Year In Review

The Agitator

are forecast to account for the least growth, while individual giving will increase 7.7% Giving in November (+0.4%) and the December forecast (+0.2%) are worrisome portends for 2012. We’ll know more when The Atlas of Giving releases its 2012 Forecast in mid-January. database marketing direct mail direct marketing Don't Miss these Posts fundraising higher ed marketing marketing metrics nonprofit management nonprofits online fundraising research

Acquisition: Predictive Analytics And The Presidency

The Agitator

This forecast is the product of a predictive model created from an analysis of a range of swing state polls by Nate Silver for his 538 Blog at the New York Times. These are the same methods that enabled scientists to forecast many days in advance where and when Hurricane Sandy was about to hit the US.). History’s most expensive acquisition effort – the $2 billion campaign for the US Presidency – comes to an end today.

Calculating Your Online $$ Potential

The Agitator

However, while I’m not yet giddy over this calculator, I do hope it works, because I suspect there are many small and mid-sized nonprofits out there who don’t have the in-house expertise or can’t afford consultants to make dependable multi-year forecasts. Tags: Don't Miss these Posts database marketing direct mail direct marketing donor retention fundraising marketing metrics online fundraising telemarketing

Free Resource, "Philanthropy and the Social Economy: Blueprint 2013" Comes Highly Recommended For Your Organization's Welfare This Year

Seeking Grant Money Today

Insight: Big Shifts that Matter Foresight: Predictions for 2013 Hindsight: Previous Forecasts Glimpses of the Future" In order to download it for free, you simply have to provide Grantcraft with your interests in grants, zip code, name, professional affiliation, and e-mail address. Are you a nonprofit fundraiser interested in learning for free what to expect in 2013 from a talented expert?

The Skinny on Direct Marketing 101 – The Basics: A Participant’s View


She offered useful analysis of direct versus digital marketing, and emphasized using benchmarking, forecasting and historical trends from quality metrics to maximize high value long term donors. The main takeaway was that building loyal constituencies starts with having consistent business rules and tracking metrics. This following article was originally published in March 2016 by the Direct Marketing Association of Washington and is reprinted with permission.